for a long while now people have been wondering whether the bush administration will trot out osama bin laden just prior to the elections. a recent story from the new republic seems to point to the fact that this is certainly the administrations intention (though it would also seem to dispel the notion that they have had osama in custody for a long while already). as time has passed there has been much speculation on what other october surprise may be in the works.

one extremely cynical idea which seems prevalent is expectation of another terrorist attack inside the us before the elections. as an intended october surprise? doubt that. but a press conferences offering nonspecific warning to stir fear of an attack? certainly. it’s a proven strategy by now it seems (a warning with no specific information, no specific targets, just “chatter”, no recommendations on what we as citizens ought to do besides “keeping an eye out”. all this with the now standard tacked on epilogue of “but don’t be scared, go about your lives”... anyone else notice this last warning came just in time to wipe a newly solidified democratic ticket off the front pages?) what about an imaginary attempted attack which is heroically thwarted? certainly a possibility. i’ve wondered all along why more attacks, or even serious threats of such, would be seen to somehow benefit the current administration? wouldn’t a successful attack actually point to an administrations failure to secure us? wouldn’t it cast doubt on bullet proof legislation like the patriot act? and won’t the constant looming threat, in and of itself, have a similar effect? what is the line at which the benefits of a fearful populace shift to anger at the seeming failure of basic security? when do the people get fed up? in any case the expected passing of the buck for our other travesty is now officially underway. and this particular buck can only be passed once effectively i’d say. you can’t place blame on the intelligence community, re-haul it, then blame them again for giving you what you asked for. can you? anyhow, from now till november i guess the only thing to say is “expect something to happen, but don’t be scared, go about your lives”.